“I’ve realized a new reason why pessimism sounds smart: optimism often requires believing in unknown, unspecified future breakthroughs—which seems fanciful and naive.’” – Farnam Street
Apologies for the delay here. We drove from Florida to Utah with some stops in Carlsbad Caverns N.P., Guadalupe Mountains N.P., Santa Fe, NM and Mesa Verde N.P. That took some time.
Speaking of time, economic / market developments are occurring quite a bit faster than I would have predicted 30 – 60 days ago.
Here are my most influential reads for the month – in no particular order:
- How Much Further Can We Fall? – “In 2017, the average company traded at 5.4x forward compared to 7.93x as of this morning. There’s precedent for another halving.”
- Sunk costs at work – “Quitting is underrated.”
- Was the 1966-1982 Stock Market Really That Bad? – “It’s interesting to note that the 1966-82 period of low stock returns, high inflation, and high wage growth is basically the exact opposite of the current environment of high stock returns, low inflation and stagnating wages.”
- If You Think Free Speech Is Defined By Your Ability To Be An Asshole Without Consequence, You Don’t Understand Free Speech (But You Remain An Asshole) – “And when you look closely at the actual debate, it always comes down to “I want to be a disrespectful asshole to people I don’t like, and I don’t want to face any consequences for it.””
- This Time Wasn’t Different – “For instance, over 40% of all stocks had no earnings over the last 12 months.”
- Sunday Reads …The Glut of Overpriced Companies in The Private Markets – ” but now we have a private market filled with hundreds of Unicorns from Softbank and its clones that will have to work through the system.”
- Brief Comments on the TerraUSD and Tether Stablecoin Breakdowns – “To be explicit about our dim view of crypto, it’s taken literally hundreds of years to make simple-minded banking not-too-dangerous for the financial health of its customers. There is no reason to think that crypto promoters are going to design a better and certainly not a safer mousetrap any time soon.”
- 13 Strategies That Will Make You A Better Reader – ““You must linger among a limited number of master-thinkers, and digest their works, if you would derive ideas which shall win firm hold in your mind.””
- What Should Accompany Stocks: Cash or Bonds? – “Thus, while intermediate-term Treasuries should typically be used to offset the risk of a stock portfolio, there is some logic to holding a shorter portfolio today: say, a mix that consists half of five-year notes and half of Treasury bills.
- 15 of the Craziest Charts Right Now – “And it’s not just a handful of stocks that are getting killed.”
Note: This is based on when I read the article, not necessarily when it was first published. Unfortunately, my backlog of things I would like to read always seems to dwarf the amount of time I can devote to reading.
Top clicks across the site last month:
- Financial Model vs. Operating Model
- Email: Don’t Get Fired
- EBITDA Is Not A Good Proxy For Cash Flow
- Excel Tips: Football Field Chart
- Operating Model Tips ()