Monthly Archives: June 2022


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This is not investment advice.  This is just information that anyone who has any savings in high yield savings or money market accounts should know.

The most recent Treasury Bill auction results:

And Notes:

Look at that rate on the 26 week bill. And the 2 Year Note cracking 3%.

Marcus, you and your peers better up your game a bit.

Again, this is most definitely not investment advice.

Bears Watching: All Time Lows

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I see a chart like this, and the value hunter in me, cannot help but see an opportunity.  This fund is plumbing its all time lows.

But then I look at a chart like this, and think, well maybe all time lows when the history is only from 2010 forward, is irrelevant (maybe even dangerous) given the macro squishing that could happen if large flows / rate trends reverse (i.e. return to more normal levels).

The vast majority of interest rate history is above, not below, where we are today.

Source: Visual Capitalist

Influential Reads – May 2022

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“I’ve realized a new reason why pessimism sounds smart: optimism often requires believing in unknown, unspecified future breakthroughs—which seems fanciful and naive.’” – Farnam Street

Apologies for the delay here.  We drove from Florida to Utah with some stops in Carlsbad Caverns N.P., Guadalupe Mountains N.P., Santa Fe, NM and Mesa Verde N.P.  That took some time.

Speaking of time, economic / market developments are occurring quite a bit faster than I would have predicted 30 – 60 days ago.

Here are my most influential reads for the month – in no particular order:

  1. How Much Further Can We Fall? – “In 2017, the average company traded at 5.4x forward compared to 7.93x as of this morning. There’s precedent for another halving.”
  2. Sunk costs at work – “Quitting is underrated.”
  3. Was the 1966-1982 Stock Market Really That Bad? – “It’s interesting to note that the 1966-82 period of low stock returns, high inflation, and high wage growth is basically the exact opposite of the current environment of high stock returns, low inflation and stagnating wages.”
  4. If You Think Free Speech Is Defined By Your Ability To Be An Asshole Without Consequence, You Don’t Understand Free Speech (But You Remain An Asshole) – “And when you look closely at the actual debate, it always comes down to “I want to be a disrespectful asshole to people I don’t like, and I don’t want to face any consequences for it.””
  5. This Time Wasn’t Different – “For instance, over 40% of all stocks had no earnings over the last 12 months.”
  6. Sunday Reads …The Glut of Overpriced Companies in The Private Markets – ” but now we have a private market filled with hundreds of Unicorns from Softbank and its clones that will have to work through the system.”
  7. Brief Comments on the TerraUSD and Tether Stablecoin Breakdowns – “To be explicit about our dim view of crypto, it’s taken literally hundreds of years to make simple-minded banking not-too-dangerous for the financial health of its customers. There is no reason to think that crypto promoters are going to design a better and certainly not a safer mousetrap any time soon.”
  8. 13 Strategies That Will Make You A Better Reader – ““You must linger among a limited number of master-thinkers, and digest their works, if you would derive ideas which shall win firm hold in your mind.””
  9. What Should Accompany Stocks: Cash or Bonds? – “Thus, while intermediate-term Treasuries should typically be used to offset the risk of a stock portfolio, there is some logic to holding a shorter portfolio today: say, a mix that consists half of five-year notes and half of Treasury bills.
  10. 15 of the Craziest Charts Right Now – “And it’s not just a handful of stocks that are getting killed.”

Note: This is based on when I read the article, not necessarily when it was first published.  Unfortunately, my backlog of things I would like to read always seems to dwarf the amount of time I can devote to reading.

Top clicks across the site last month:

  1. Financial Model vs. Operating Model
  2. Email: Don’t Get Fired
  3. EBITDA Is Not A Good Proxy For Cash Flow
  4. Excel Tips: Football Field Chart
  5. Operating Model Tips ()

Updated stats:

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“Republicans buy sneakers, too” – Michael Jordan

Elon has clearly been an extremely effective visionary leader.  I would go as far to say this is irrefutable.

Ignoring what other people think seems like it would be a critical component of being a visionary leader.

I am a firm believer that strengths can also be weaknesses.  Not in the vein of how they teach you to interview in MBA programs, but in terms of too much of anything is probably a bad thing.

Elon might want to listen a bit more right now.  And dial down the tweeting.  Or he risks confirming his tragic flaw.