Influential Reads – October 2023

Reading Time: 2 minutes

“Our obsession with being informed makes it hard to think long-term. We spend hours consuming news because we want to be informed. The problem is, the news doesn’t make us informed – quite the opposite. The more news we consume, the more misinformed we become.” – FS Blog

My reading goal of 30 books in 2023 has been achieved – in a large part due to the Slough House series from Mick Herron.

From time to time, I post some excel tools for folks to take advantage of.  In most cases, I am just making those available to save people some time.  But tips are always welcome.

Here are my most influential reads for the month – in no particular order:

  1. Can’t Escape the (Capital) Cycle – “Marathon Asset Management did not invent the framework, they just clearly articulated it in their letters and used it to navigate markets. “
  2.  The Tide Is Going Out – “While this will likely still take time to unfold in the private markets, it appears to already be well underway in the public markets with the average small-cap stock in the Russell 2000 down more than 33% from its 52-week high.”
  3. Can Economists Predict Recessions? – “Short answer: Maybe a quarter ahead (but not always). Beyond that short time frame, it’s simply too variable.”
  4. 6 Reasons Why a US Recession Is Likely — and Coming Soon – “… typically the US consumer keeps buying right up until the brink.”  SMS: This has been my view for awhile – the U.S. consumer will spend until stopped.
  5. What goes down must come up – “But more likely we are in a new regime, with more volatility at the very least.”
  6. Further Thoughts on Sea Change – “No one cites my candidate: the 2,000-basis-point decline in interest rates between 1980 and 2020. “
  7. Housing Market: 1981 Vs. 2009 – “Have people forgotten how bad the real estate market crashed in the early 1980s? Apparently so.”
  8. Weekend Thoughts – Inflation Hedges, Bonds & The “This is Fine” Economy – “The main reason I take it personally is because the Fed has broken a whole bunch of stuff and I don’t see how anyone can frame it any other way. “
  9. Something “Big & Stupid” Is Coming…– “So there are two ways to deal with excessive debt: fiscal discipline and inflation.”
  10. The Power of Morning Pages – “There really isn’t much to lose by sitting down and writing for twenty to thirty minutes every morning.”

Note: This is based on when I read the article, not necessarily when it was first published.  Unfortunately, my backlog of things I would like to read always seems to dwarf the amount of time I can devote to reading.

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Reminder: I learned way back in 2000 not to give investment advice, especially to people I know well.  So please do not take anything in any of these posts as financial or investment advice.

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