Influential Reads – June 2023

Reading Time: 2 minutes

“The people who didn’t do any work at home never did any work in the office. They’re just easier to identify when they work from home. Hard workers are hard workers no matter where they operate.” – Farnam Street Brain Food

More books, less articles appears to be a by-product of traveling.

Here are my most influential reads for the month – in no particular order:

  1. Jim Grant Warns of ‘Long Cycle’ of Rising Interest Rates, Bond Bear Market – “It would not surprise me at all if we were embarked on something resembling a generation-length bear market in bonds, meaning rising yields and falling prices. That would fit the form.”
  2. How to spot a house price bubble – “First, they show that until the 1970s, house prices were mostly determined by the cost of materials and labour to build a house, the supply of houses and population growth. But since the 1970s the drivers have shifted. Between 1970 and 2012 about 70% of the house price increase can be explained by the increase in capital and the cost of capital, while an additional 20% is explained by population growth.”
  3. The Great US Treasury Bond Rout Is Far From Over – “I have what might be disconcerting news: It’s not over.”
  4. Chart of the Week: Commercial Real Estate Collapse – “According to the Green Street Commercial Property Price Index prices are now down by 15%. That’s the largest decline we’ve seen since the GFC. “
  5. Enough with Interest Rates Already – “So, to sum up: for at least 40 years, the level of real policy rates has had no discernable effect on changes in the level of inflation.”
  6. The new way of work – “The pandemic didn’t create distributed work, the laptop did. Human interaction is critical, but the office isn’t actually the most effective way to create that.”
  7. The Lesson to Unlearn – “Tests can be divided into two kinds: those that are imposed by authorities, and those that aren’t. Tests that aren’t imposed by authorities are inherently unhackable, in the sense that no one is claiming they’re tests of anything more than they actually test”
  8. The brave new world of probability and statistics – “The sobering consequence is that a significant portion of the models, funds and strategies employed in the investment world, including many of those marketed to individual investors, may be merely statistical mirages. “
  9. Change Your Perspective – “My colleague Ben Carlson likes to point out that average annual returns for the S&P500 is 8%, a number that market almost never returns on an annual basis.”
  10. What Would Happen if the Fed Caves to 4%-5% Core PCE Inflation, Gives up on 2%, as some Folks are Clamoring For? – “Long-term yields will explode.”

Note: This is based on when I read the article, not necessarily when it was first published.  Unfortunately, my backlog of things I would like to read always seems to dwarf the amount of time I can devote to reading.

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