“We tend to assume that the worst that has happened is the worst that can happen, and then prepare for that. We forget that “the worst” smashed a previous understanding of what was the worst..” – Brain Food: Figuring it Out (https://fs.blog/brain-food/december-11-2022/)
Happy New Year!
First post of 2023. I’ve set a goal for posting more. Competing priorities last year, especially the fourth quarter, hampered my ability to read, write, and post.
However, we successfully sold the business to a new set of investors, delivering a great outcome for our prior shareholders. So with that behind me, I hope to be spending more time here.
Note on the book reading front – I did knock out the entire Travis McGee series.
Here are my most influential reads for the month – in no particular order:
Take Calculated Risks – “Making an unconventional decision can be a very lonely action. Yet, when the person making it has intimate knowledge of a situation and has calculated the risks involved, it often proves to be precisely the right one.”
3Q 2022 GMO Quarterly Letter – ” Looked at in this way, it seems as if a value strategy in the U.S. should be avoiding the “shallow value” stocks that are mildly cheap relative to the market and focusing solely on the “deep value” quintile. “
Summary of My Post-CPI Tweets – “Overall Core ex-housing (which includes core goods) is down to 5.2% y/y. That’s the lowest since…well, September 2021. Going the right direction but unless core services start to decelerate, there’s a limit to how good this picture can be.”
The Fed is Dead – “In fact, rather than slowing corporate price increases, the Fed’s rate hikes seem to be having the opposite effect.”
Q&A with Scott Reardon: Great Investor Track Records – “Generally they were looking for companies where free cash flow yield + growth rate equaled 20% or more. In other words, they were looking for returns double the market average, which is exactly what all of them achieved over their long careers.”
Note: This is based on when I read the article, not necessarily when it was first published. Unfortunately, my backlog of things I would like to read always seems to dwarf the amount of time I can devote to reading.