Category Archives: Finance

Excel Templates & Other Free Stuff

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Readers,

Financial modeling and excel are skills that I am good at.  I am not sure if that is a good or bad thing.

And at times, I have posted some templates and workbooks that I find useful or use a lot.  Hopefully, they will save you a bit of time.

Here is a current listing:

  1. Excel Template: Stacked Bar Chart with Total
  2. Excel Template: Football Field Chart
  3. Maturity Schedule

These are all downloadable on Gumroad at no cost.  

Drop a note in the comments if there is something excel that you would like to see.  No promises.  

Remember, you get what you pay for…

Cash

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This is not investment advice.  This is just information that anyone who has any savings in high yield savings or money market accounts should know.

The most recent Treasury Bill auction results:

And Notes:

Look at that rate on the 26 week bill. And the 2 Year Note cracking 3%.

Marcus, you and your peers better up your game a bit.

Again, this is most definitely not investment advice.

Bears Watching: All Time Lows

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I see a chart like this, and the value hunter in me, cannot help but see an opportunity.  This fund is plumbing its all time lows.

But then I look at a chart like this, and think, well maybe all time lows when the history is only from 2010 forward, is irrelevant (maybe even dangerous) given the macro squishing that could happen if large flows / rate trends reverse (i.e. return to more normal levels).

The vast majority of interest rate history is above, not below, where we are today.

Source: Visual Capitalist

That’s A Bunch Of…

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Ok, what am I missing?

The seller wants to sell me house that will cost almost $10,000 per month, and wants to rent it back for $5,000 per month.

I presume that if I do enough of these, I will make it up in volume?

Bears Watching

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Update on these two. The trend is not your friend.

Muni debt. I found this one surprising – I thought Ukraine might have caused this to pause. Apparently I was wrong. Which is why I don’t offer financial advice.

And probably more importantly, mortgage rates. Mortgage Rates Explode Higher

Relative change (percent) and velocity are both concerning.

Housing is getting more expensive – due to input costs and now rates.

And re-fi activity just completely stopped…

Bears Watching

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Maybe the most important rates to be watching are mortgage rates?

Could you imagine a mortgage rate over 10%?

Look at where rates were back in 2005 – 2006 in the run up to the Financial Crisis. About double over where we are now.

Resulting

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A quick thought here.

Recently, there have been a number of articles comparing the performance of those investors who left a portion of their portfolio in “safer” assets coming out of the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) versus those who took a more aggressive posture and were mostly or all in equities.  I will pick on this one:

Go To Extremes

I get it.  If you look at asset performance over the last ten years or so, the returns of U.S. equities look fantastic.  Holding anything but U.S. equities has been dilutive to portfolio performance.

Be careful though just focusing on the results of the last decade and making the leap that holding mostly U.S. equities was a good decision. Or that should be your strategy going forward.  That would be called “resulting”.

Resulting” is a poker term that refers to our habit of judging a decision based solely on the outcome it produced. – Thinking In Bets by Annie Duke

A good outcome is not necessarily the result of a good decision.  And vice versa.